Russia’s war heats up cooking oil prices in global squeeze

Emiwati, who runs a food stall in Jakarta, Indonesia, said she needs 24 liters of cooking oil each day. She makes nasi kapau, traditional mixed rice that she serves with dishes like deep-fried spiced beef jerky. Since January, she’s had trouble ensuring that supply, and what she does buy is much more expensive. Profits are down, but she fears losing customers if she raises prices.

“I am sad,” said Emiwati, who only uses one name. “We accept the price of cooking oil increasing, but we cannot increase the price of the foods we sell.”

The high cost of cooking oil is partly behind recent protests in Jakarta. Indonesia has imposed price caps on palm oil at home and will ban exports, creating a new squeeze worldwide. Palm oil has been sought as an alternative for sunflower oil and is used in many products, from cookies to cosmetics.

The Associated Press has documented human rights abuses in an industry whose environmental effects have been decried for years.

Across the world in London, Yawar Khan, who owns Akash Tandoori restaurant, said a 20-liter drum of cooking oil cost him 22 pounds ($28) a few months ago; it’s now 38 pounds ($49).

“We cannot pass all the price (rises) to the consumer, that will cause a catastrophe, too,” said Khan, who also struggles with rising costs for meat, spices, energy and labor.

Big companies are feeling the pain, too. London-based Unilever — maker of Dove soap and Hellmann’s mayonnaise — said it has contracts for critical ingredients like palm oil for the first half of the year. But it warned investors that its costs could rise significantly in the second half.

Cargill, a global food giant that makes vegetable oils, said its customers are changing formulas and experimenting with different kinds of oils at a higher rate than usual. That can be tricky because oils have different properties; olive oil burns at a lower temperature than sunflower oil, for example, while palm oil is more viscous.

Prices could moderate by this fall, when farmers in the Northern Hemisphere harvest corn, soybeans and other crops, said Joseph Glauber, a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute. But there’s always the danger of bad weather. Last year, drought pummeled Canada’s canola crop and Brazil’s soybean crop, while heavy rains affected palm oil production in Malaysia.

Farmers may be hesitant to plant enough crops to make up for shortfalls from Ukraine or Russia because they don’t know when the war might end, said Steve Mathews, co-head of research at Gro Intelligence, an agriculture data and analytics company.

“If there were a cease-fire or something like that, we would see prices decline in the short run for sure,” he said.

Longer term, the crisis may lead countries to reconsider biofuel mandates, which dictate the amount of vegetable oils that must be blended with fuel in a bid to reduce emissions and energy imports. In the U.S., for example, 42% of soybean oil goes toward biofuel production, Glauber said. Indonesia recently delayed a plan to require 40% palm oil-based biodiesel, while the European Commission said it would support member states that choose to reduce their biofuel mandates.

In the meantime, consumers and businesses are struggling.

Harry Niazi, who owns The Famous Olley’s Fish Experience in London, says he used to pay around 22 pounds ($29) for a 20-liter jug of sunflower oil; the cost recently jumped to 42.50 pounds ($55). Niazi goes through as many as eight jugs per week.

But what worries him even more than rising prices is the thought of running out of sunflower oil altogether. He’s thinking of selling his truck and using the cash to stock up on oil.

“It’s very, very scary, and I don’t know how the fish and chips industry is going to cope. I really don’t,” he said.

So far, Niazi has held off on raising prices because he doesn’t want to lose customers.

At Jordan’s Grab n’ Go, a small restaurant in Dyersburg, Tennessee, known for its fried cheeseburgers, owner Christine Coronado also agonized about price increases. But with costs up 20% across the board — and cooking oil prices nearly tripling since she opened in 2018 — she finally hiked prices in April.

“You hate to raise prices on people, but it’s just that costs are so much higher than they were a couple of years ago,” she said.

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Chan reported from London. AP journalists Edna Tarigan and Fadlan Syam in Jakarta, Indonesia; Farai Mutsaka in Harare, Zimbabwe; Suzan Fraser in Ankara, Turkey; Mehmet Guzel in Istanbul; Anne D’Innocenzio in New York; and Sebabatso Mosamo and Mogomotsi Magome in Johannesburg contributed.